OSCARS 2026: THE PREDICTIONS
It seems odd to quote Weird Al Yankovic in an awards season piece but 2026's Academy Awards seems to be the year where critics are starting to believe: "Everything you know is wrong."
In all but one of the major categories, pundits are struggling to identify a clear favourite.
And we have to admit, Pomona is no exception.
This could be thr year when this blog racks up its worst ever score in the Oscars predictions game.
But hey, let's give it a go anyway.
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
F1
Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
At the outset of this year's race, 2026 looked like the year the Academy would finally shower Paul Thomas Anderson with a host of statuettes.
Anderson's mesmerising satirical action thriller 'One Battle After Another' was an early favourite for Best Picture and it very much felt like a film with its finger on the pulse of Donald Trump's deeply divided USA.
However the record breaking 16 nominations amassed by Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' injected a huge element of doubt into the race and it is now easy to see how the momentum behind Warner Bros' much loved musical vampire adventure could sweep it to multiple Oscar glory.
With Critics Choice Best Picture, Golden Globe Drama, BAFTA Best Picture, Producers Guild, Directors Guild and Writers Guild wins under its belt, the form book would seem to suggest Anderson's film is the more likely of the two to triumph in the battle for Best Picture.
However victory at the Screen Actors' Guild Awards has given Coogler's film a chance of upsetting the form, much like Paul Haggis' 'Crash' did in 2006 when everybody thought Ang Lee's 'Brokeback Mountain' would win.
You can't help but feel Joachim Trier's 'Sentimental Value,' Chloe Zhao's 'Hamnet' and Kleber Mendonca Filho's 'The Secret Agent' should have figured more in the conversation for this category but, alas, they're making up the numbers.
We're plumping for 'One Battle After Another's but, if we are being honest, this blog is far from confident.
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: One Battle After Another or Sentimental Value
Will Win: One Battle After Another
BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)
Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
If the Oscars success two years ago of 'Oppenheimer' felt like Academy recognition for Christopher Nolan's body of work, victory for Paul Thomas Anderson in this category would feel exactly the same.
That's not to downplay the brilliance of Anderson's quirky film which has moments that really dazzle.
However if Anderson fails to win after picking up Critics Choice, Golden Globe, Directors Guild and BAFTA awards in this category, it would very much see him cast him in the role that Martin Scorsese once occupied as the greatest living director never to win an Oscar.
If you're looking for an upset, though, Ryan Coogler could be the filmmaker to pull it off.
Were he to win, Coogler would make history as the first black director to triumph and it would be a hugely popular victory for a much loved film.
Going into tonight's ceremony, though, the odds still favour Anderson who Pomona is going for.
However you can envisage a scenario where Anderson wins this category but 'Sinners' takes Best Picture.
Could Win: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) or Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
Emma Stone (Bugonia)
There's been huge excitement in Ireland at the prospect of Jessie Buckley becoming the country's first winner of a Best Actress statuette.
And certainly all the indicators are pointing to the Kerry woman doing exactly that with Critics Choice, Golden Globe Drama, BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild awards going her way.
Her biggest rival would appear to be Australia's Rose Byrne who has picked up Golden Globe Comedy or Musical and Independent Spirit Awards during awards season for her role as a psychotherapist struggling with motherhood in Mary Bronstein's 'If I Had Legs I'd Kick You'.
Renate Reinsve should have been a real contender for her superb performance as an angry daughter in Joachim Trier's Scandinavian family drama 'Sentimental Value'.
However it's hard to see any other result apart from the Oscar going to the Kingdom of Kerry - just two years after her fellow Munster man Cillian Murphy scored a Best Actor win for 'Oppenheimer' and Cork's Rebel County.
Could Win: Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
Should Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) or Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
Will Win: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Leonardo diCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Michael B Jordan (Sinners)
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
For much of awards season, Best Actor looked like a lock for Timothee Chalamet for his performance as an obnoxious ping pong champion in Josh Safdie's 'Marty Supreme'.
However a surprise loss at the BAFTAs to Robert Aramayo for the British Tourettes drama 'I Swear' and then Michael B Jordan's triumph at the SAGs for 'Sinners' has totally upended the race.
Momentum has started to swung heavily in recent weeks behind Jordan for his dual role as gangster twins running a juke joint in Mississippi who quickly find themselves fighting vampires.
Indeed there's a sense Chalamet's social media savvy campaigning for the Oscar may have provoked a backlash.
We're going for Jordan to win, despite the belief that Moura should have been more in the hunt.
Could Win: Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Should Win: Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Will Win: Michael B Jordan (Sinners)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
Inga Ibsdotter Lileass (Sentimental Value)
Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
This is one of those categories that could split one of three ways.
In the red corner, there is English actress Wunmi Mosaku who won a BAFTA for her feisty performance in Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners'.
In the blue corner is Amy Madigan who has notched up Critics Choice and SAG wins in the category for her quirky turn in Zach Cregger's supernatural mystery horror flick 'Weapons'.
In the green corner is Teyana Taylor who captured a Golden Globe for playing a cocky revolutionary in 'One Battle After Another'.
Making up the numbers are Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lileass for their roles in the Norwegian drama 'Sentimental Value'.
If there were any justice, the latter would actually emerge as this year's winner.
However we expect Madigan on the night to clutch a statuette.
However if 'Sinners' starts to go on an awards sweep, don't be shocked if Mosaku rides that wave of success.
Could Win: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lileass (Sentimental Value)
Will Win: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
Jacob Elordi (Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein)
Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
Could Sean Penn be about to join the ranks of Daniel Day Lewis, Frances McDormand, Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson, Ingrid Bergman and Walter Brennan as a three times Oscar winner?
In recent weeks, that has started to look like a real possibility, with Penn taking the Supporting Actor gongs at the BAFTAs and SAGs for his performance as an unhinged, bigoted soldier hiding a secret in 'One Battle After Another'.
But he faces a real threat from Sweden's Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgard for 'Sentimental Value' and possibly Delroy Lindo if 'Sinners' starts to sweep several categories.
Critics Choice winner Jacob Elordi lost early momentum in the Oscars race after failing to take more goings for his sensitive performance as the Monster in 'Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein'.
We suspect it will be a Penn victory, even though we would really love Skarsgard to triumph.
Could Win: Delroy Lindo (Sinners) or Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
Should Win: Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
Will Win: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
The Secret Agent (Kleber Mendonco Filho, Brazil)
It Was Just An Accident (Jafar Panahi, France)
Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier, Norway)
Sirat (Oliver Laxe, Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Kaouther Ben Hania, Tunisia)
Could Win: The Secret Agent (Kleber Mendonco Filho, Brazil)
Will Win: Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier, Norway)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Arco (Ugo Bienvenu)
Elio (Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi and Adrian Molina)
K-Pop Demon Hunters (Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans)
Little Amelie or The Character of Rain (Mailys Vallade and Liane-Cho Han)
Zootopia 2/Zootropolis 2 (Jared Bush and Byron Howard)
Could Win: Zootopia 2/Zootropolis 2 (Jared Bush and Byron Howard)
Will Win: K-Pop Demon Hunters (Maggie Kang and Chris Appelhans)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will Tracy (Bugonia)
Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)
Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell (Hamnet)
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (Train Dreams)
Could Win: Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell (Hamnet)
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Robert Kaplow (Blue Moon)
Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident)
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Could Win: Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
Should Win: Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident)
Will Win: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Could Win: Sinners
Should Win: Train Dreams
Will Win: One Battle After Another
BEST CASTING
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Secret Agent
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Should Win: Sinners
Will Win: Sinners
BEST ORIGINAL MUSICAL SCORE
Bugonia
Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Could Win: One Battle After Another
Will Win: Sinners
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
'Dear Me' ('Diane Warren: Relentless')
'Golden' (K Pop Demon Hunters)
'I Lied To You' (Sinners)
'Sweet Dreams of Joy' (Viva Verdi!)
'Train Dreams' (Train Dreams)
Could Win: 'I Lied To You' (Sinners)
Will Win: 'Golden' (K Pop Demon Hunters)
BEST FILM EDITING
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Could Win: F1
Will Win: One Battle After Another
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World: Rebirth
Sinners
The Lost Bus
Could Win: F1 or Sinners
Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
BEST SOUND
Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
F1
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirat
Could Win: Sinners
Will Win: F1
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Should Win: Sinners
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Could Win: Sinners
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
BEST MAKE UP AND HAIRSTYLING
Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Could Win: Sinners
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Come See Me In The Good Light
Cutting Through The Rocks
Mr Nobody Against Putin
The Alabama Solution
The Perfect Neighbour
Could Win: Mr Nobody Against Putin
Will Win: The Perfect Neighbour
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
All The Empty Rooms
Armed Only With A Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly A Strangeness
Could Win: The Devil Is Busy
Will Win: All The Empty Rooms
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
A Friend of Dorothy
Butcher's Stain
Jane Austen's Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
Could Win: The Singers
Will Win: Two People Exchanging Saliva
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Butterfly
Forevergreen
Retirement Plan
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
The Three Sisters
Could Win: Retirement Plan
Will Win: Butterfly
Comments
Post a Comment