2025's awards season will be remembered for being an unusually close race.
BEST PICTURE
Awards season began with Sean Baker's comedy drama 'Anora' slightly ahead of the pack, with the Cannes Film Festival's top prize, the Palme d'Or under its belt.
Winning Cannes, though, is never a surefire indicator of success when it comes to the Academy Awards and in the most open race in years, we have seen at various stages 'Emilia Perez,' 'The Brutalist,' 'Conclave' and 'Wicked' all seem like contenders for the Oscars most coveted prize.
As awards season has progressed, though, the race has narrowed down to probably three candidates - 'Anora,' 'Conclave' and 'The Brutalist'.
With the Directors Guild and Producers Guild prizes in its collection, 'Anora' seems to be now locked in a dead heat with the SAG Best Ensemble and BAFTA Best Film winner 'Conclave'.
However you cannot completely discount Brady Corbet's 'The Brutalist' after its Golden Globes - Best Motion Picture (Drama) success.
Torpedoed by the scandal around its star Karla Sofia Gascon's social media posts, the other Golden Globes Best Motion Picture winner (for a Comedy or Musical) 'Emilia Perez' should have been a contender but has just fallen by the wayside, thanks to awards season politics.
This is a shame because outside of 'Dune, Part II' it may be the strongest film in the pack.
With little faith in our final prediction, Pomona has nevertheless plumped for 'Conclave' to win on the night.
'Anora' would be a braver, less conservative choice and you wouldn't argue with 'The Brutalist' triumphing either.
However 'Conclave' just feels like a safer bet.
In our opinion, the shortlist should have included IFTA Best Picture winner 'Small Things Like These' and the criminally overlooked 'Nightbitch' at the expense of 'Wicked' and possibly 'The Substance'.
But as the world keeps one eye on Rome and concerns over the health of Pope Francis, don't be surprised if a Catholic Church thriller emerges victorious despite Edward Berger's failure to make the directors shortlist.
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune Part II
Emilia Perez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Glaring Omissions: Small Things Like These, Nightbitch
Should Win: Emilia Perez or Dune, Part II
Will Win: Conclave
BEST DIRECTOR
In a pretty strong field that resulted in Edward Berger being elbowed out of contention, Sean Baker would seem to have the edge in an extremely close contest with Brady Corbet.
Either would be a deserved win.
Baker takes a rather slight plot and elevates it visually with vibrant images and a stunning set of performances from a relatively unknown cast.
Corbet delivers a handsome, well acted, three hour plus epic packed full of ideas on a really modest budget.
BAFTA and Golden Globe winner Corbet's hopes may have been dented, though, by concerns over his film's use of Artificial Intelligence to enhance performance.
As a result, wins at the Directors Guild and Cannes are believed to have given Baker the edge in this contest which is why we are going with him.
Audiard should have been the duo's big rival with his dazzlingly directed, highly original musical but his film has fallen victim to the worst kind of Hollywood politics.
As a result, the Frenchman may have to console himself with a Best International Feature win - although, as you will see later, that result is far from guaranteed.
Fargeat and Mangold have done well to make the shortlist but they could and probably should have been usurped by two of the following - Denis Villeneuve for his superb work on 'Dune, Part II,' Tim Mielants for 'Small Things Like These' or Marielle Heller for 'Nightbitch'.
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
Glaring Omissions: Tim Mielants (Small Things Like These') Marielle Heller ('Nightbitch') or Denis Villeneuve (Dune Part II)
Should Win: Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)
Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
BEST ACTRESS
With Golden Globe, SAG and other wins under her belt, Demi Moore should be romping home to victory in this category.
She's still very much on course for a win on Sunday, marking a wonderful career comeback for her impressive performance in Coralie Fargeat's inventive feminist body horror tale 'The Substance'.
However Mikey Madison's surprise BAFTA success for 'Anora' has thrown a spanner in the works.
Expect Academy voters, though, to buy into Moore's glorious comeback story arc.
Gascon and Torres should probably have been contenders, while Erivo is fortunate to have made the shortlist and not ceded her place to one of the following: Marianne Jean Baptiste, Saoirse Ronan or Amy Adams who were unlucky to not make the grade for 'Hard Truths,' 'The Outrun' or 'Nightbitch'.
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)
Glaring Omissions: Marianne Jean Baptiste (Hard Truths), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Amy Adams (Nightbitch)
Should Win: Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here) or Mikey Madison (Anorak)
Will Win: Demi Moore (The Substance,)
BEST ACTOR
For much of awards season, this race looked like Adrien Brody's with Golden Globe, BAFTA and other wins under his belt for playing a Hungarian Holocaust survivor and architect struggling to deliver his creative vision in Pennsylvania in 'The Brutalist'.
But then Timothee Chalamet threw the contest into disarray by nabbing the SAG award for his performance as Bob Dylan in 'A Complete Unknown' - an important win because it came from his peers.
Chalamet has been quite brazen about his desire to take the statuette and has also taken a more novel Gen Z approach to Oscar campaigning.
Nevertheless Pomona suspects older Oscar voters to row in behind Brody who could win a second Best Actor Oscar for a film with a Holocaust theme, having already won in 2003 for Roman Polanski's 'The Pianist'.
At one stage, Ralph Fiennes looked like a contender in this category for his role as an English Cardinal in the Vatican thriller 'Conclave' but what was once regarded as a promising campaign just seemed to stall after the Golden Globes.
For the second year running, Colman Domingo has deservedly landed a nomination in this category and arguably turns in the most impressive performance of all the nominees in the prison arts drama 'Sing Sing,' while Sebastian Stan has done well to make the shortlist for playing Donald Trump in 'The Apprentice'.
Stan should probably have been nominated, though, for his exhilarating lead performance in Aaron Schimberg's smart black comedy 'A Different Man'.
However the most obvious snub in this category and throughout awards season was last year's Best Actor winner Cillian Murphy whose quietly devastating turn as a coal delivery man standing up to the Catholic Church in 'Small Things Like These' is a masterclass in "show, not tell" acting.
Not only should the Corkman have made Best Actor shortlists, he should have won every award going.
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
Glaring Omissions: Cillian Murphy (Small Things Like These)
Should Win: Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Will Win: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Rather unusually for awards season in 2025, this is a category where the likely victor has been clear from the off.
Kieran Culkin has been hugely fancied to take the Oscar for his performance as a cousin struggling with loss in Jesse Eisenberg's Polish odyssey 'A Real Pain' and he has captured every major award on offer,
Culkin's 'Succession' co-star Jeremy Thomas has been an also ran despite a typically intense performance as Donald Trump's mentor Roy Cohn in 'The Apprentice'.
Yura Borisov impressed too as a Russian henchman who defies expectations in 'Anora,' while Guy Pearce deserves his first nomination for playing the wealthy benefactor in 'The Brutalist'.
Edward Norton's folksy turn as the American music legend Pete Seeger rounds off a shortlist where Stanley Tucci , Scoot McNairy and Clarence Maclin were all unfortunate to miss out on nods for 'Conclave', 'Nightbitch' and 'Sing Sing'.
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Glaring Omissions: Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Scoot McNairy (Nightbitch), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
Should Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Will Win: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
If 'Emilia Perez' has one hope of overcoming the odds following the controversy over Karla Sofia Gascon's tweets, then this category may be it.
Zoe Saldana has swept all the major awards in the race this year from the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs and SAGs and has proven a popular winner.
The failure of her castmate Selena Gomez to make the shortlist probably boosts her prospects in a field where Isabella Rossellini and Felicity Jones offer the best hopes of an upset.
However Saldana deserves the win.
Barbaro and Grande are lucky to be in the field and probably should have been elbowed out by two of the following performances: Emily Watson for her chilling turn as a nun in an Irish mother and baby home in 'Small Things Like These', Saoirse Ronan for her performance as a London wartime mum in Steve McQueen's 'Blitz' or Selena Gomez.
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
Glaring Omissions: Emily Watson (Small Things Like These), Saoirse Ronan (Blitz), Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez)
Should Win: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
Will Win: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Jacques Audiard's 'Emilia Perez' has led the pack in this category throughout awards season.
But this race is far from certain with Walter Salles' Brazilian political thriller 'I'm Still Here' drawing a lot of admirers.
In a world where authoritarianism is looming its ugly head once more, Salles' film could prove irresistible to some voters which is why we are leaning towards a victory for it in this category
Latvia's entry, Gints Zilbalodis' animated fantasy adventure 'Flow' has attracted a lot of buzz but could win elsewhere, while Magnus Von Horn's Danish psychological horror film 'The Girl With The Needle' and Mohammad Rasoluf's German made but Iranian set political thriller 'The Seed of The Sacred Fig' appear to be making up the numbers.
As for glaring omissions, while Rich Peppiatt's West Belfast Irish language rap romp 'Kneecap' was unlucky not to make the final list, it's still hard to argue that any of the five films competing in this category were less deserving.
I'm Still Here (Walter Salles, Brazil)
The Girl With The Needle (Magnus Von Horn, Denmark)
Emilia Perez (Jacques Audiard, France)
The Seed of A Sacred Fig (Mohammad Rasoluf, Germany)
Flow (Gints Zilbalodis, Latvia)
Should Win: 'Emilia Perez' or 'I'm Still Here'
Will Win: 'I'm Still Here'
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Original Screenplay category always provides an opportunity to reward less conventional fare that might otherwise get overlooked.
But that might not be the case if Sean Baker ends up taking gongs in this category, Best Director and Best Film.
'Anora' certainly has all the hallmarks of an Original Screenplay winner but so too have Jesse Eisenberg's 'A Real Pain' and Coralie Fargeat's 'The Substance' - either of which could triumph on the night.
'The Brutalist' and the Munich Olympics thriller 'September 5' would appear to be the also rans in this race.
We're going with 'Anora' to take home the prize - even if we were sufficiently charmed by 'A Real Pain' to root for Eisenberg in this category.
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold (The Brutalist)
Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Moritz Binder & Tim Fehlbaum (September 5)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
Glaring Omissions: Steve McQueen (Blitz)
Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
Will Win: Sean Baker (Anora)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
By way of contrast, the Adapted Screenplay award tends to be more conventional and it may well fall into the hands of Peter Straughan this year for 'Conclave'.
Why?
Well, one reason might be to ensure it walks away with at least one award if the Best Picture prize goes elsewhere.
However another is that 'Conclave' seems to be picking up every award going for its writing - even if some of its narrative twists seem a bit of a stretch.
If it doesn't win, look to James Mangold and Jay Cocks, as it might be a chance for Academy voters to reward 'A Complete Unknown' and celebrate the career of Bob Dylan.
'Emilia Perez' should have mounted more of a fight in this category but was derailed by scandal.
'Nickel Boys' and 'Sing Sing' should be pleased to be in the final dash for Oscar glory, even if they are likely to leave empty handed.
However this feels like a category where Enda Walsh should have been considered for his wonderful adaptation of Claire Keegan's novella 'Small Things Like These'.
Marielle Heller also had a decent case for her version of Rachel Yoder's 'Nightbitch' and Nora Fingscheidt and Amy Liptrot should have been in the mix too for their adaptation of the latter's memoir 'The Outrun'.
James Mangold & Jay Cocks (A Complete Unknown)
Peter Straughan (Conclave)
Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain & Lea Mysius (Emilia Perez)
Ra'Mell Ross & Joslyn Barnes (Nickel Boys)
Greg Kwedar & Clint Bentley (Sing Sing)
Glaring Omissions: Enda Walsh (Small Things Like These) Marielle Heller (Nightbitch) and Nora Fingscheidt and Amy Liptrot (The Outrun).
Should Win: Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain and Lea Mysius (Emilia Perez)
Will Win: Peter Straughan (Conclave)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Despite the presence of last year's biggest box office hit 'Inside Out 2' on this shortlist, expect a rival to walk away victorious.
That film is likely to be Chris Sanders' 'The Wild Robot' - although don't discount Gints Zilbalodis' Best International Feature nominee 'Flow'.
Adam Elliott's Australian animated tale 'Memoir of a Snail' and Nick Park and Merlin Crossingham's popular 'Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl' have done well to make the list but that is the summit of their ambitions.
Flow (Gints Zilbalodis)
Inside Out 2 (Kelsey Mann)
Memoir of A Snail (Adam Elliot)
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Nick Park & Merlin Crossingham)
The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders)
Should Win: The Wild Robot
Will Win: The Wild Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries (Shiori Ito)
No Other Land (Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
The Porcelain War (Brendan Bellomo & Slava Leontyev)
Soundtrack To A Coup d'Etat (Johan Grimonprez)
Sugarcane (Julian Brave Noisecat & Emily Kassie)
Should Win: No Other Land (Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor)
Will Win: The Porcelain War (Brendan Bellomo & Slava Leontyev)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
Greg Fraser (Dune, Part II)
Paul Guilhaume (Emilia Perez)
Ed Lachman (Maria)
Jarin Blaschke (Nosferatu)
Should Win: Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
Will Win: Lol Crawley (The Brutalist)
BEST FILM EDITING
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
Should Win: Emilia Perez
Will Win: Conclave
BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown
Dune, Part II
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Should Win: Dune, Part II
Will Win: Dune, Part II
BEST ORIGINAL MUSICAL SCORE
Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
Volker Bertelmann (Conclave)
Clement Ducol & Camille (Emilia Perez)
John Powell & Stephen Schwartz (Wicked)
Kris Bowers (The Wild Robot)
Should Win: Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
Will Win: Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
'El Mal' (Clement Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard - 'Emilia Perez')
'The Journey' (Diane Warren - 'The Six Triple Eight')
'Like A Bird' (Abraham Alexander & Adrian Quesada - 'Sing Sing')
'Mi Camino' (Clement Ducol & Camille - 'Emilia Perez')
'Never Too Late' (Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt & Bernie Taupin - 'Elton John: Never Too Late')
Should Win: El Mal' (Clement Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard - 'Emilia Perez')
Will Win: El Mal' (Clement Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard - 'Emilia Perez')
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune, Part II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Should Win: Dune, Part II
Will Win: Dune, Part II
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune, Part II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Should Win: Dune, Part II
Will Win: Wicked
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Should Win: Nosferatu
Will Win: Wicked
BEST HAIRSTYLING AND MAKE -UP
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Should Win: The Substance
Will Win: Wicked
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Death By Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl In The Orchestra
Will Win: Death By Numbers
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candles
Wander To Wonder
Yuck!
Will Win: Yuck!
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
A Lien
Anuja
I'm Not A Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Stay Silent
Will Win: A Lien
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