We all know Murphy's Law: anything that can go wrong will go wrong.
That's what happened to 'The Banshees of Inisherin' 12 months ago at the Oscars as 'Everything, Everywhere, All At Once' dominated the awards.
So can Corkman Cillian Murphy make up for the disappointment in Irish film circles last year and turn that premise on its head?
That's the big question on a night when Christopher Nolan's 'Oppenheimer' is expected to crown a glorious awards season by dominating this year's Academy Awards.
Only in the Best Actor category has Nolan's atomic bomb epic looked vulnerable, with Murphy vying to be the first Irish actor born on the island to capture the prize.
But after a strong showing by Murphy and others in the final stretch of awards season, can anyone disrupt what has seemed like an inevitable march to Oscar dominance by 'Oppenheimer'?
It's that time again, folks, for Pomona to look foolish by indulging in our annual parlour game of predicting this year's winners and losers.
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BEST PICTURE
It's hard to look beyond 'Oppenheimer' in this category - especially after its Golden Globe, BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild wins.
From the off, its procession to Oscar glory has seemed inevitable but if there is to be an upset, where should we look?
Cannes winner 'Anatomy of the Fall,' 'Past Lives' and 'The Zone of Interest' certainly have their advocates and are better than Christopher Nolan's impressively made frontrunner.
Of the three, 'The Zone of Interest' is unquestionably the most daring.
'Barbie' would be a popular winner and a bit of a poke in the eye for an Academy that failed to nominate Greta Gerwig for Best Director or Margot Robbie for Best Actress but it's hard to see that happening.
'Killers of the Flower Moon' would be a decent choice too, while a triumph for 'The Holdovers' would be sweet.
However it's hard to see anything other than a win for Nolan's sprawling epic which still holds up well against other recent Best Picture winners.
What Will Win: Oppenheimer
What Should Win: The Zone of Interest
What Should Have Been Nominated: All of Us Strangers
What Could Cause An Upset: Anatomy of A Fall
BEST DIRECTOR
It's always felt during awards season like Christopher Nolan's name has been etched on this statuette.
Nothing over the past few months has changed that view.
Lanthimos would be an interesting choice as Best Director but 'Poor Things' is probably a bit too surreal to appeal to most Academy tastes.
Glazer and Triet are more deserving, with the latter possibly offering the best chance of a surprise win and the former helming the most boundary pushing film.
Scorsese will have to content himself with becoming the most nominated director alive right now with 10 nominations over the course of his glorious career and one win for 'The Departed' in 2006.
In addition to Greta Gerwig, Celine Song and Andrew Haigh have good justification for feeling miffed not to have landed nominations for 'Past Lives' or 'All of Us Strangers'.
Nevertheless this is still a very strong shortlist.
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of A Fall)
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Who Should Win: Jonathan Glazer
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Celine Song (Past Lives), Greta Gerwig (Barbie) or Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
Who Could Cause An Upset: Justine Triet
After his Golden Globe, BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild wins in this category, Cillian Murphy looks on course to complete the awards season Grand Slam.
It's not a complete lock, though.
For a while, Paul Giamatti was going toe to toe with the Irishman after taking the Critics Choice Award.
Had he won the Screen Actors Guild award, the game would very much have been on and while he is still the one contender most likely to spring a surprise, the odds seem to be really stacking up against him.
Cooper, Domingo and Wright have very much been also rans in a category that should have featured Andrew Scott for 'All of Us Strangers'.
While Murphy would be a good choice as Best Actor, some will feel Giamatti's performance deserves it more.
Then again, as good as both Murphy and Giamatti's performances undoubtedly are, I would have picked Scott over both of them.
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy
Who Should Win: Paul Giamatti
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Christian Friedl (The Zone of Interest) or Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Who Could Cause An Upset: Paul Giamatti
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© Paramount Pictures & Apple TV+BEST ACTRESS
This has been a straight contest over the past three months between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone for 'Poor Things' and 'Killers of the Flower Moon'.
After winning Golden Globes, Emma Stone, a previous winner for 'La La Land,' appeared to have the upper hand after she captured the Critics Choice award and a BAFTA.
However Gladstone's Screen Actors Guild victory could be telling, with Academy voters swayed by the historical significance of a Native American woman winning an Oscar for the first time and a desire to give 'Killers of the Flower Moon' something to celebrate.
Both would be worthy winners, although Sandra Huller would be an exhilarating choice for 'Anatomy of a Fall'.
Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan appear to be also rans in this category for 'Nyad' and 'Maestro' respectively.
However I'm plumping for an historic Gladstone win.
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Huller (Anatomy of A Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone
Who Should Win: Sandra Huller
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Greta Lee (Past Lives) or Margot Robbie (Barbie)
Who Could Cause An Upset: Emma Stone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Could Emily Blunt surf to a surprise victory on the irresistible wave of approval for 'Oppenheimer'?
The form book says no, with Da'Vine Joy Randolph winning every major award this year for her superb performance as a grieving boarding school cook in Alexander Payne's 'The Holdovers'.
In the face of a likely 'Oppenheimer' Oscars landslide, Randolph offers the best chance to honour Payne's film which a lot of voters will have a strong affection for.
Blunt would be a deserved and popular winner though, while Ferrera has gained a lot of respect throughout her awards campaign and cannot be completely ruled out.
Both they and Danielle Brooks and Jodie Foster for 'The Color Purple' and 'Nyad' have lagged behind Randolph, though, all awards season.
It would be a massive shock if she was to be denied her moment of Oscar glory.
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da'vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Who Will Win: Da'vine Joy Randolph
Who Should Win: Da'vine Joy Randolph
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) or Cara Jade Myers (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Who Could Cause An Upset: Emily Blunt
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Before awards season, Robert de Niro was being touted as a possible Oscar winner for 'Killers of the Flower Moon' in what would be the third Academy Award of his career.
However from the moment he lifted his Golden Globe, Robert Downey Jr left de Niro and his fellow competitors for dust.
Having fronted the most lucrative film franchise of recent years as Marvel's Iron Man and shown real promise as an actor in his youth, Downey Jr would be a hugely popular winner and a deserving one for his Salieri-like performance as the manipulative businessman, naval officer and philanthropist Lewis Strauss in 'Oppenheimer'.
In my opinion De Niro delivers arguably the better performance.
It is too much to expect Academy Awards voters to be seduced by Ryan Gosling's superb comic performance as Ken in 'Barbie'.
Brown and Ruffalo have done well to make it onto the shortlist for 'American Fiction' and 'Poor Things'.
Indeed the four times nominated Ruffalo might be a very dark horse in this field, if voters decide to spring a huge shock.
However in all likelihood this is going to be Robert's night - Downey Jr, that is.
Sterling K Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr
Who Should Win: Robert De Niro
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers) or John Magaro (Past Lives)
Who Could Cause An Upset: Mark Ruffalo
As for the rest of the categories, these are my thoughts.
© A24 & Film 4BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Io Capitano (Matteo Garrone - Italy)
Perfect Days (Wim Wenders - Japan)
Society of the Snow (JA Bayona - Spain)
The Teachers Lounge (Ilker Catak - Germany)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer - UK)
What Will Win: The Zone of Interest
What Could Cause An Upset: Perfect Days
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and The Heron (Hayao Miyazaki)
Elemental (Peter Sohn)
Nimona (Troy Quane & Nick Bruno)
Robot Dreams (Pablo Berger)
Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse (Joaquin Dos Santos, Justin K Thompson & Kemp Powers)
What Will Win: Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
What Could Cause An Upset: The Boy and The Heron
© PBS Distribution & DogwoofBEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People's President (Moses Bwayo & Christopher Sharp)
The Eternal Memory (Maite Alberdi)
Four Daughters (Kaouther Ben Hania)
To Kill A Tiger (Nisha Pahuja)
20 Days In Mariupol (Mstyslav Chernov)
What Will Win: 20 Days In Mariupol
What Could Cause An Upset: To Kill A Tiger
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Anatomy of A Fall (Justine Triet & Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Past Lives (Celine Song)
What Will Win: Anatomy of A Fall
What Should Win: Anatomy of A Fall
What Should Have Been Nominated: Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
What Could Cause An Upset: Past Lives
© Searchlight Pictures, Film 4, TSG Entertainment & Element PicturesAmerican Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
What Will Win: American Fiction
What Should Win: The Zone of Interest
What Should Have Been Nominated: All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
What Could Cause An Upset: Oppenheimer
© Disney & LucasfilmAmerican Fiction (Laura Karpman)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Oppenheimer (Ludwig Goransson)
Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
What Will Win: 'Oppenheimer'
What Should Win: 'Oppenheimer'
What Could Cause An Upset: 'Killers of the Flower Moon'
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
'The Fire Inside' (Diane Warren from 'Flamin' Hot')
'I'm Just Ken' (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt from 'Barbie')
'It Never Went Away' (Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson from 'American Symphony')
'Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)' (Scott George from 'Killers of the Flower Moon')
'What Was I Made For?' (Billie Eilish & Finneas Connelly from 'Barbie')
What Will Win: What Will Win: 'What Was I Made For?' ('Barbie')
What Should Win: 'I'm Just Ken' ('Barbie')
What Could Cause An Upset: 'I'm Just Ken' ('Barbie')
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© NetflixEdward Lachman (El Conde)
Matthew Libatique (Maestro)
Rodrigo Prieto (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robbie Ryan (Poor Things)
Hoyte Van Hoytema (Oppenheimer)
What Will Win: Oppenheimer
What Should Win: Poor Things
What Could Cause An Upset: Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of A Fall (Laurent Senechal)
The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
What Will Win: Oppenheimer
What Should Win: Oppenheimer
What Could Cause An Upset: Anatomy of a Fall
© Paramount PicturesThe Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahi, Ethan Van Der Ryan, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Maestro (Steven A Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Mission Impossible - Dead Reckoning, Part One (Chris Munro, James H Mather, Chris Burdon & Mark Taylor)
Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A Rizzo & Kevin O'Connell)
The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers & Johnnie Burn)
What Will Win: Oppenheimer
What Should Win: The Zone of Interest
What Could Cause An Upset: The Zone of Interest
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts & Neil Corbould)
Godzilla Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibua, Masaki Takahashi & Tatsuji Nojima)
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3 (Stephanie Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams & Theo Bialek)
Mission Impossible, Dead Reckoning Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Neil Corbould)
Napoleon (Charley Henley, Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco & Neil Corbould)
What Will Win: The Creator
What Should Win: Godzilla, Minus One
What Could Cause An Upset: Godzilla, Minus One
© Sony Pictures Releasing & Apple TV+Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk & Adam Wills)
Napoleon (Arthur Max & Elli Griff)
Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
Poor Things (James Price, Shona Heath & Zsuzsa Mihalek)
What Will Win: Poor Things
What Should Win: Poor Things
What Could Cause An Upset: Barbie
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
Napoleon (Janty Yates & Dave Crossman)
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
What Will Win: Poor Things
What Should Win: Poor Things
What Could Cause An Upset: Barbie
© NetflixGolda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby & Ashra Kelly-Blue)
Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiu & Lori McCoy-Bell)
Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulter & Josh Weston)
Society of the Snow (Ana Lopez-Puigcerver, David Marti & Montse Ribe)
What Will Win: Maestro
What Should Win: Poor Things
What Could Cause An Upset: Poor Things
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
The After (Misan Harriman & Nicky Bentham)
Invincible (Vincent Rene-Lortie & Samuel Caron)
Knight of Fortune (Lasse Lyskjaer Noer & Christian Norlyk)
Red, White & Blue (Jaxon Choudhury & Sara McFarlane)
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Wes Anderson & Steven Rales)
What Will Win: Red, White and Blue
What Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
What Could Cause An Upset: The After
© NetflixLetter To A Pig (Tal Kantor & Amit R Gicelter)
Ninety-Five Senses (Jared & Jerusha Hess)
Our Uniform (Yegane Moghaddam)
Pachyderme (Stephanie Clement & Marc Rius)
War Is Over! Inspired By The Music of John Lennon & Yoko Ono (Dave Mullins & Brad Booker)
What Will Win: War Is Over! Inspired By The Music of John Lennon & Yoko Ono
What Could Cause An Upset: Letter To A Pig
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The ABCs of Book Banning (Sheila Nevins & Trish Adlesic)
The Barber of Little Rock (John Hoffman & Christine Turner)
Island In Between (S Leo Chiang & Jean Stein)
The Last Repair Shop (Ben Proudfoot & Chris Bowers)
Nai Nai & Wai Po (Sean Wang & Sam Davis)
What Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
What Could Cause An Upset: The Last Repair Shop
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