There appears to be a certain inevitability about 'Encanto' marching towards an Oscar.
After all, it seems to be the same every year.
A Disney or Pixar film comes out with a massive marketing campaign.
It gets mostly good reviews, does thunderous business at the box office and obliterates the competition during awards season.
2019 bucked that trend, of course, with 'Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse' triumphing at the Oscars over 'Incredibles 2' and 'Ralph Breaks The Internet'.
However most years, the award has been the preserve of Disney Pixar to the extent that you can't help sympathising with the likes of Studio Ghibli and Studio Chizu in Japan and Cartoon Saloon in Ireland.
Over the years they have produced great, innovative animated stories but what do they have to do to win?
'Encanto' arrives at this year's Academy Awards with three nominations including for Germaine Franco's Best Original Score and for Lin Manuel Miranda's 'Dos Oruguitas' which is up for Best Original Song.
However the prize Disney and it's directors Jared Bush and Byron Howard most covet is the Animated Feature gong where they are up against Jonas Poher Rasmussen's innovative Danish animated documentary 'Flee'.
Netflix also has skin in the game with Mike Rianada and Jeff Lowe's amusing sci-fi adventure 'Mitchells versus the Machines'.
There's competition too from two Disney stablemates - Enrico Casarosa's delightful Italian Disney tale 'Luca' and Don Hall and Carlos Lopez Estrada's Southeastern Asian adventure 'Raya and the Last Dragon'.
With BAFTA, Golden Globe and National Board of Review wins under its belt, though, 'Encanto' is the firm favourite.
Set in Colombia, Bush and Howard's animated feature is built around the kind hearted teenage character of Mirabel Madrigal who is voiced by 'Brooklyn Nine Nine' cast member Stephanie Beatriz.
Fifteen year old Mirabel is a nice kid in a village that lionises her family.
Mirabel's grandparents, Pedro and Alma originally fled their village with their triplets during a conflict, pursued by a savage gang.
While Pedro was killed during the escape, Alma was able to repel the gang and protect her children with the help of a magic candle.
The candle also created a magic, colourful house known as Encanto which grants each member of the family special powers.
In the 50 years since Pedro's death, a thriving village has built up around the Encanto and every Madrigal child is granted a talent in a special ceremony where they have to enter a room.
Every child that is except Mirabel whose door yields no gift.
Another member of the family, John Leguizamo's uncle Bruno was granted the gift of precognition.
However he was ostracised by the family for having bleak premonitions and was forced to go into hiding.
In the latest Encanto ceremony, Ravi Cabot-Conyers' Antonio Madrigal receives the talent of being able to converse with animals.
Years before Mirabel's sister, Jessica Darrow's 19 year old Luisa was given superhuman strength, while another sister Diane Guerrero's Isabel was granted the power of perfection.
Her mother, Angie Capeda's Julietta can heal others with her cooking, while her aunt Carolina Gaitan's Pepa is able to control the weather with her mood.
Mirabel is viewed with pity by her relatives and the villagers because she has no apparent superpower.
During Antonio's ceremony, however, she notices the structure of the Encanto is cracking and that the candle also seems to be flickering and in danger of being extinguished.
Nobody else seems to notice.
Her warnings are dismissed by her 75 year old grandmother, Maria Cecilia Botero's Alma and other members of the family who insist the house is fine.
Hearing her grandmother pray, she starts to investigate the cause of the cracking and during a conversation with Luisa, her super strong sister admits to sometimes feeling overwhelmed.
Mirabel is convinced that the house and the candle is losing its power and she believes Bruno's room may hold the key to explaining why.
But when she starts to explore the room, it brings her on a voyage that will unearth family secrets and draw the disapproval of Alma.
As with a lot of Disney's output, 'Encanto' has buckets load of charm.
The animation is superb and the directors and their co-screenwriter Charise Castro Smith have clearly taken the time to understand Colombian culture and ensure the wildlife, flora and fauna depicted onscreen are accurate.
It has a nice warm Disney message of inclusivity at its heart.
So, why does it all feel a bit.. meh?
Maybe it's because it feels a little too like 'Coco', with its vibrant colours and its family on an emotional journey.
Maybe it's the rich array of family characters or the fact that Mirabel, like Miguel in 'Coco', is a misfit whose sense of curiosity drives the plot.
Maybe the mystery around Bruno's disappearance feels a little bit like the mystery around the figure of de la Cruz.
Maybe it's Lin Manuel Miranda's songs which are fine like the songs in 'Coco' but are not earth shattering.
Yes, 'We Don't Talk About Bruno' may have become a viral sensation but this is a world which made the 'Crazy Frog' and 'Gangnam Style' viral sensations.
It's a world that treats Coldplay, Rhiana, Taylor Swift, Ed Sheeran and Kanye as if they are musical geniuses.
But they're not. Let's face it.
Much has been made of the fact that Mirabel is the first Disney heroine to wear glasses and that's great.
However it is also striking that unlike a lot of the Disney classics, Bush and Howard's film has no villain - just an unknown force draining the Encanto of its power.
With Mirabel embarking on a quest to discover what is causing this, the story has a bit of a meandering quality and the sense of threat just feels a bit low on energy.
Don't get me wrong - 'Encanto' is entertaining enough and it will amuse the kids.
The performances are decent, particularly Beatriz's.
Visually it looks great.
But is it a Disney classic?
Does it push the boat out thematically or technically?
Not really and that's why, if you were being honest, it probably shouldn't win Best Animated Feature at the Academy Awards.
It may be by a country mile the most commercially successful of the five Best Animated Feature nominees but the Oscars shouldn't be a popularity contest.
It should be about narrative and technical excellence.
'Encanto' is entertaining but it isn't the best of the five nominees.
Bush and Howard's feature isn't even the best of the Disney nominees.
It certainly isn't the most innovative - not even by two country miles.
('Encanto' was released in UK and Irish cinemas on November 24, 2021)
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