It's becoming harder to predict Best Picture at the Academy Awards
That's not a cop out.
It's a fact.
As Scott Feinberg rightly pointed out earlier this year in the Hollywood Reporter between 20 and 25 per cent of the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences come from outside the US and they are largely not represented on the other bodies that hand out prizes during awards season.
That means the Golden Globes, SAGs, Producers Guild, Directors Guild and BAFTAs have become less accurate as indicators of the Best Picture race.
The composition of those bodies has changed.
Feinberg notes that SAG voters include radio personalities, meteorologists and TikTok stars, while BAFTA's nominations are decided by a series of specialist panels for acting, directing etc.
That explains some of the wild variations that have occurred this year in terms of the various nominations.
After all, how do you explain Catriona Balfe's remarkable Best Supporting Actress Oscar snub this year for 'Belfast' after her SAG and BAFTA nominations?
Or Jodie Foster's Best Supporting Actress Golden Globes win last year for 'The Mauritanian' and yet no place in the Oscars shortlist?
It's hard for any film buff, though,to resist the temptation to predict the Academy Awards - even if it feels like an increasingly foolish exercise.
So why break the habit of a lifetime?
Here's Pomoma's thoughts on who will win this year's Oscars.
BEST PICTURE
At the start of awards season, it looked like this year was going to develop into a straight fight between Kenneth Branagh's 'Belfast' and Jane Campion's 'The Power of the Dog'.
Nobody tipped Sian Heder's 'CODA' at the outset to supplant Branagh's film and turn the contest into a battle of the streaming giants.
Campion's Netflix film won the top prize at the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, the Directors Guild and a tonne of other critics prizes.
But momentum has swung behind Heder's AppleTV+ film in the final stages of the Oscar race, with triumphs at the Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild and Writers Guild awards.
A win for either seems possible but the preferential ballot could be what swings it in 'CODA's favour as the more populist drama, unless voters are swayed by a backlash in the deaf community about Heder's film perpetuating myths about deaf people being burdens on their family and unappreciative of music.
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In the last few days, Focus Pictures chief Peter Kujawski has insisted 'Belfast' may yet pull off a surprise win.
Nevertheless we think that Apple TV+'s movie will thwart Netflix's long held ambition of having a Best Picture winner in its stable.
Of the ten films nominated, 'The Power of the Dog' should win as it is the most technically impressive followed by Denis Villeneuve's 'Dune' and Branagh's film.
Like 'Belfast,' 'CODA' tugs at the heart strings and we suspect it may benefit from that and also the sweet smell of success it has enjoyed during the final furlong of awards season.
Nominees: CODA; Don't Look Up: Drive My Car; Dune; King Richard; Licorice Pizza; Nightmare Alley; The Power of the Dog; West Side Story
Who Will Win: CODA
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BEST DIRECTOR
All through awards season, it has seemed Jane Campion's name has been carved already on the statuette.
And there's been nothing to suggest otherwise.
The New Zealander's Western drama 'The Power of the Dog' is a visual feast and features towering performances from its cast.
That is why she has triumphed at the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Directors Guild, Gold Derby and took the Silver Lion for direction at the Venice Film Festival.
Sian Heder's failure to make the shortlist probably makes it easier for the Netflix film to take this prize while the Best Picture award goes to 'CODA'.
Steven Spielberg for 'West Side Story' or Kenneth Branagh would be who you would look to pull off what would be stunning upset.
However with Martin Scorsese, Sofia Coppola, Guillermo del Toro and Maggie Gyllenhaal all cheering on 'The Power of the Dog,' expect Campion to deservedly take the prize.
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza); Kenneth Branagh (Belfast); Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog); Ryusuke Hagamuchi (Drive My Car); Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Who Will Win: Jane Campion (Power of the Dog)
BEST ACTOR
This is another category which has felt like a coronation.
Will Smith has won just about every prize going this year for his performance as the father of the tennis greats Venus and Serena Williams in 'King Richard'.
Over the course of awards season, he has collected a Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild award, a Critics Choice Award and a BAFTA.
While Andrew Garfield may have pulled off an upset at the Gold Derby Awards for his performance as Jonathan Larson in Lin Manuel Miranda's 'Tick..Tick.. BOOM!', it was a blip.
Smith will win comfortably, even though the most impressive of the five performances is Benedict Cumberbatch's turn as a bully in 'The Power of the Dog'.
Cumberbatch and Garfield will have to wait before they eventually get their hands on an acting gong.
Nominees: Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos); Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog); Andrew Garfield (Tick.. Tick.. BOOM!); Will Smith (King Richard); Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Who Will Win: Will Smith (King Richard)
BEST ACTRESS
The race for Best Actress has actually been the hardest to call throughout awards season, with no clear favourite emerging.
By nabbing the Screen Actors Guild and Critics Choice Awards, Jessica Chastain probably has the slight edge over the rest of the pack and enough acclaimed performances over the course of her career for Academy voters to be persuaded to go with her.
While her performance in 'The Eyes of Tammy Faye' is undoubtedly Oscar worthy, victory in the category is far from sewn up.
Colman, who had become a bit of an Academy Awards favourite in recent years, cannot be discounted for her nuanced performance in 'The Lost Daughter', nor can Kidman for her Lucille Ball impersonation in 'Being the Ricardos'.
After emerging as the early favourite, Stewart's performance as Princess Diana in Pablo Larrain's overrated 'Spencer' seems to have lost momentum.
It is not beyond the realms of possibility, though, that Penelope Cruz may come out of leftfield like Colman did with 'The Favourite' and win for Pedro Almodovar's 'Parallel Mothers'.
Of the five, Colman's is the most daring and intriguing performance but Chastain's is the most fun and accessible.
We're going for Chastain to win but with little certainty that that will be the eventual result.
Nominees: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye); Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter); Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers); Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos); Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
In a very strong field, Ciaran Hinds' turn as Pop in 'Belfast' should probably be the pick of the five nominees if you were choosing the best performance.
However this doesn't feel like the Belfast actor's year.
Troy Kotsur has mopped up the Screen Actors Guild, Critics Choice and, crucially in Hinds' backyard, the BAFTA awards in this category.
Hollywood will also not be able to resist the potential of Kotsur making Oscar history as the first deaf man to win an acting award - 35 years after his co-star Marlee Marlin won Best Actress for 'Children of a Lesser God'.
Don't get me wrong. Kotsur delivers a good performance in 'CODA' but is it really the best?
Golden Globe and Gold Derby victor Kodi Smit-McPhee would be a worthy winner too for his sensitive performance in 'The Power of the Dog,' as would Jesse Plemons for his performance in that film.
However their presence is likely to split any support for either of them.
Expect Kotsur to deliver another amusing acceptance speech in sign language in what will be one of the most popular results of the night.
Nominees: Ciaran Hinds (Belfast); Troy Kotsur (CODA); Jesse Plemons (Power of the Dog); JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos); Kodi Smit-McPhee (Power of the Dog)
Who Will Win: Troy Kotsur (CODA)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Of all the acting categories, this was arguably the most fiercely contested for nominations and arguably the most controversial.
Observers were stunned when Judi Dench bagged a place on the shortlist instead of her 'Belfast' co-star Caitriona Balfe.
Ruth Negga had a strong claim to be on the list for her performance in 'Passing,' while Rita Moreno probably deserved a nod for her performance in Steven Spielberg's vibrant remake of 'West Side Story'.
Expect her fellow cast member Ariana DeBose to win for reprising the role Moreno won the Best Supporting Actress award for in 1961.
With Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, Critics Choice and BAFTA awards under her belt, the Afro-Latina actress looks on course for another history making win.
It could be argued that both Jessie Buckley and Kirsten Dundst turn in more demanding performances in Netflix's 'The Lost Daughter' and 'The Power of the Dog' respectively.
However this statuette has DeBose's name all over it.
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter); Ariana DeBose (West Side Story); Judi Dench (Belfast); Kirsten Dundst (Power of the Dog); Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Who Will Win: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE
Having nabbed Best Picture and Best Director nominations, you would expect Ryusuke Hagamuchi's 'Drive My Car' to triumph.
National Society of Film Critics, Golden Globe, Independent Spirit, Critics Choice and BAFTA wins have probably cemented the three hour film's frontrunner status.
But don't rule out a potential upset by Jonas Poher Rasmussen's gripping animated asylum seeker story 'Flee' which has been nominated in the Best Animated Feature and Best Documentary Feature categories too.
It would be terrific to see the Danish documentary win but 'Drive My Car's journey to Academy Awards success has always seemed more likely.
Paolo Sorrentino's Neapolitan coming of age story 'Hand of God' deserves its place on the shortlist but along with Joachim Trier's acclaimed 'The Worst Person in the World' and Bhutan's first Academy Award nominated picture, Pawo Choyning Dorji's 'Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom,' it seems to be just making up the numbers
Nominees: Drive My Car (Japan); Flee (Denmark); Hand of God (Italy); Luna: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan); The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Who Will Win: Drive My Car
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
This category has always seemed like the preserve of Disney, with more daring international animated movies nominated often being passed over in the final shakedown.
Expect this year to be no different.
The question is which of the three Disney films will win?
Jared Bush and Byron Howard's 'Encanto' has a lot of love out there and is the clear favourite.
While Pomona thinks, Enrico Casarosa's 'Luca' is the best of the Disney trio, we are rooting for 'Flee'.
However were itvto win, it would be a huge shock.
Nominees: Encanto; Flee; Luca; Raya and the Last Dragon; The Mitchells versus The Machines
Who Will Win: Encanto
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Having only seen two of the nominees, it's hard for Pomona to definitively say who deserves to win this award.
However the march to victory of Questlove's Hulu film 'Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)' about the Harlem Cultural Festival has always seemed written in the stars.
Having hoovered up just about every major award, it seems ridiculous to expect any other result.
Nominees: Ascension; Attica; Flee; Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised); Writing with Fire
Who Will Win: Summer of Soul (Or When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
There is another opportunity for history to be made in this category if Ari Wegner wins for 'The Power of the Dog'.
She would become the first woman Director of Photography to take the prize and she thoroughly deserves it.
But you could argue the other four nominees would be decent choices in one of the toughest contests of the night.
Greg Frasier's excellent work on 'Dune' might be enough to spring a surprise, especially if the sci-fi epic sweeps the technical categories.
Pomona is plumping for Wegner, though because it should win.
Nominees: Greig Frasier (Dune); Dan Laustsen (Nightmare Alley); Ari Wegner (The Power of the Dog); Bruno Delbonnel (The Tragedy of Macbeth); Janusz Kaminski (West Side Story)
Who Will Win: Ari Wegner (The Power of the Dog)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Given the warmth towards Kenneth Branagh's 'Belfast' at the start of awards season, it would be disappointing if it didn't come away with at least one Academy Award.
With its Best Picture hopes receding and Ciaran Hinds' bid for Best Supporting Actor being swept aside, this category probably represents its best shot.
If it does triumph, it will be a fitting recognition of Branagh's contribution to cinema both as an actor and a director.
Given the tumultuous events also taking place in the world right now, it would be deserved.
Paul Thomas Anderson's 'Licorice Pizza' is probably its biggest threat but Pomona's hunch is 'Belfast' will have something to cheer about on Oscars night.
Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast); Adam McKay (Don't Look Up); Zach Baylin (King Richard); Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza); Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (Worst Person In The World)
Who Will Win: Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Such is the positive sentiment that had swung in behind Sian Heder's 'CODA,' there's a strong possibility it could win this category as well.
An English language remake of the 2014 French movie 'La Famille Belier,' a victory in this category might be the Academy's equivalent of cashing in an insurance policy just in case 'CODA' doesn't edge out 'The Power of the Dog' in the Best Picture contest.
It possibly boosts Heder's chances that she didn't make the Best Director shortlist.
And while Jane Campion, who won a screenwriting award for her movie 'The Piano' in 1994, would be a deserved winner, Pomona would love it if Maggie Gyllenhaal were to pull off an upset for her superb script for 'The Lost Daughter'.
We're tipping 'CODA' to win, though.
Nominees: Sian Heder (CODA); Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe (Drive My Car); Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth (Dune); Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter); Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Who Will Win: Sian Heder (CODA)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
How wonderful would it be to see Radiohead's Jonny Greenwood win for his work on 'The Power of the Dog'?
Don't hold your breath, though, because this looks like Hans Zimmer's night for his sweeping score on Denis Villeneuve's 'Dune'.
In what has always looked like a straight fight between the two nominees, Greenwood's hopes haven't caught fire.
Either would deserve it but expect Zimmer to emerge victorious, as the Academy rewards a stellar career.
Nominees: Nicholas Brittell (Don't Look Up); Hans Zimmer (Dune); Germaine Franco (Encanto); Alberto Iglesias (Parallel Mothers); Jonny Greenwood (The Power of the Dog)
Who Will Win: Hans Zimmer (Dune)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Beyonce and Billie Eilish are expected to perform.
Van the Man isn't.
A Lin Manuel Miranda victory would make him a member of the select EGOT group of Emmy, Grammy, Oscar and Tony winners.
Pomona would love to see a Van Morrison win for 'Down to Joy' but we're convinced it ain't going to happen.
Billie Eilish and her brother Finneas O'Connell are in with a great shout for their 007 song 'No Time To Die'.
However this feels like Lin Manuel Miranda's year as 'Dos Oruguitas' from 'Encanto,' allowing Academy members the chance to deliver another slice of awards history.
Nominees: Be Alive (DIXSON and Beyonce Knowles Carter - King Richard); Dos Orguitas (Lin Manuel Miranda - Encanto); Down To Joy (Van Morrison - Belfast); No Time To Die (Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell - No Time To Die); Somehow You Do (Diane Warren - Four Good Days)
Who Will Win: Dos Orguitas (Lin Manuel Miranda - Encanto)
OTHER CATEGORIES
As for the remaining categories, here are our predictions (including a win for Riz Ahmed in the Best Live Action short category).
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: Dune; Free Guy; No Time To Die; Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Five Rings; Spiderman - No Way Home
Who Will Win: Dune
BEST FILM EDITING
Don't Look Up; Dune; King Richard; The Power of the Dog; Tick.. Tick.. BOOM!
Who Will Win: The Power of the Dog
BEST SOUND
Belfast; Dune; No Time to Die; The Power of the Dog; West Side Story
Who Will Win: Dune
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Dune; Nightmare Alley; The Power of the Dog; The Tragedy of Macbeth; West Side Story
Who Will Win: Dune
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Cruella; Cyrano; Dune; Nightmare Alley; West Side Story
Who Will Win: Cruella
BEST MAKE UP AND BEST HAIRSTYLING
Nominees: Coming 2 America; Cruella; Dune; The Eyes of Tammy Faye; House of Gucci
Who Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Nominees: Ala Kachuu - Take and Run; The Dress; The Long Goodbye; On My Mind; Please Hold
Who Will Win: The Long Goodbye
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Nominees: Affairs of the Art; Bestia; BoxBallet; Robin Robin; The Windshield Wiper
Who Will Win: Robin Robin
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Nominees: Audible; Lead Me Home; The Queen of Basketball; Three Songs for Benazir; When We Were Bullies
Who Will Win: Audible
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