Skip to main content

THE COVID OSCARS (ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS 2021)

It is going to be an Oscars ceremony like never before.

Last year's Oscars took place before the Coronavirus shut down many countries.

This year as the world still grapples with Covid-19, the Academy Awards has had to radically rethink how it is going to hand out its statuettes just like every other major awards ceremony has done over the last year.

Instead of taking place in February, the event has switched to late April.

This year's ceremony will flit between Los Angeles' Dolby Theatre and Union Station because of social distancing.

Nominees will also be able to join via satellite from London and Paris.

All of this has made for a rather different type of awards season.

This year's runners and riders have had to find audiences mostly through streaming services instead of cinemas which have been shut because of the pandemic.

Some of the contenders have yet to made available in some territories.

But how does Pomona rate the favourites' chances?

As is traditional, Pomona foolishly predicts a winner in each category and assesses the major races.

Given that major contenders like Chloe Zhao's highly fancied 'Nomadland,' Thomas Vinterberg's 'Another Round' and Florian Zeller's 'The Father' have yet to be released in the UK and Ireland, we are ditching our traditional "what should win" feature.

That seems sensible but let's enjoy our annual parlour game.

BEST PICTURE

With Golden Globe, BAFTA, Producers Guild and Critics Choice awards under its belt, this category feels like a slam dunk for Chloe Zhao's 'Nomadland'.

Aaron Sorkin's 'The Trial of the Chicago Seven' triumphed at the Screen Actors Guild but it must be remembered 'Nomadland' was deemed ineligible in that competition for the ensemble cast award because of the film's focus around Frances McDormand's character.

Those looking for a major shock should take their pick from Sorkin's theatrical film, David Fincher's overrated 'Mank,' Florian Zeller's well regarded 'The Father,' Lee Isaac Chung's touching 'Minari' and Emerald Fennell's powerful 'Promising Young Woman'.

However the chances of an upset seem extremely remote.

This statuette has 'Nomadland' written all over it.

Nominees: The Father; Judas and the Black Messiah; Mank; Minari; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago Seven

What Will Win: Nomadland

BEST DIRECTOR

Vinterberg has done very well to make this shortlist, while Fincher always seemed destined to make it.

Chung and Fennell are strong contenders too.

However it looks likely that for the second year running, the Best Director winner will actually be the same as Best Picture.

Expect Chloe Zhao to become only the second woman to win in this category, following in the footsteps of Kathryn Bigelow.

Nominees: Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round); David Fincher (Mank); Lee Isaac Chung (Minari); Chloe Zhao (Nomadland); Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

What Will Win: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)

BEST ACTRESS

Of all the high profile categories, this is the most open race.

Andra Day upset the form book with her Golden Globe Best Actress in a Drama win for 'The United States versus Billie Holiday'.

Early favourite Viola Davis took the top award at the Screen Actors Guild for 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'.

Carey Mulligan upset the odds at the Critics Choice Awards for her terrific performance in 'Promising Young Woman'.

Frances McDormand won the BAFTA for 'Nomadland'.

So given that they're spreading the love over awards season, Oscar night should belong to Vanessa Kirby for 'Pieces of a Woman', right?

Probably not - although it's arguably the bravest performance of the five. 

Momentum for 'Nomadland' may carry McDormand to a third statuette but I have a sneaking suspicion Day will cause the upset despite it being the most conventional of the five.

Nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom): Andra Day (The United States versus Billie Holiday); Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman): Frances McDormand (Nomadland); Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

What Will Win: Andra Day (The People versus Billie Holiday)

BEST ACTOR

In any other year, Riz Ahmed's heartfelt performance as a drummer who is losing his hearing in 'The Sound of Metal' would be regarded as a very strong contender.

So too would Anthony Hopkins for his turn as a dementia patient in 'The Father'.

However it is hard to conceive of any other result than a posthumous win for the late Chadwick Boseman in 'Ma Rainey's Black Bottom'.

Despite Hopkins winning a BAFTA, Boseman has scooped just about every other prize and it is deserved.

Oldman for 'Mank' and Yuen for 'Minari' also appear to be making up the numbers in a category that will celebrate a charismatic lead actor whose death last year robbed cinema of a promising talent.

Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal); Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom); Anthony Hopkins (The Father); Gary Oldman (Mank); Steve Yeun (Minari).

What Will Win: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

History beckons in a category that is not as nailed down as some might have anticipated.

For Yuh-jung Youn, she could become the first Korean to take home an acting Oscar and she has become a very strong contender after her BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild victories.

For Glenn Close, a different kind of history beckons.

Should she lose for an eighth time in an Oscar race for her performance in 'Hillbilly Elegy,' she will tie with Peter O'Toole as the most unsuccessful acting nominee of all time.

One measure of just how competitive this category is is the fact that Jodie Foster's Golden Globes Supporting Actress win for 'The Mauritanian' wasn't even enough to carry her into the Oscars shortlist.

A victory for Seyfried for 'Mank' is possible and Colman should not be discounted for 'The Father,' nor should Close if sentiment carries the evening.

Maria Bakalova might even provide a Marisa Tomei 'My Cousin Vinny' style upset for 'Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm'.

However I am plumping for a Yuh-jung Youn win for her mischievous performance in 'Minari', as Academy voters will surely like to give Lee Isaac Chung's film a major award?

Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm); Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy); Olivia Colman (The Father); Amanda Seyfried (Mank);  Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

What Will Win: Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

On the basis of the awards season form book, Kaluuya should be the runaway favourite for his magnetic Golden Globe, BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild winning performance as Fred Hampton in 'Judas and the Black Messiah'.

However the nomination of his co-star Lakeith Stanfield in this category for his terrific turn as the FBI informant William O'Neal has raised the possibility of a split vote denying the English actor the biggest prize.

If that happens, either Sacha Baron Cohen or Leslie Odom Jr might be the ones to benefit for their more vanilla turns in 'The Trial of the Chicago Seven' or 'One Night in Miami'.

That would be a pity as Kaluuya, Stanfield and Paul Raci give much more profound performances in 'Judas and the Black Messiah' and 'Sound of Metal'.

Of the five performances, Kaluuya's probably deserves it most and that's why I'm sticking with him to win.

But I am doing so with less conviction than I might have had, had Stanfield not been nominated in this category.

Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen ('The Trial of the Chicago Seven'); Daniel Kaluuya ('Judas and the Black Messiah'); Leslie Odom Jr ('One Night in Miami'); Paul Raci ('Sound of Metal'): Lakeith Stanfield ('Judas and the Black Messiah')

What Will Win: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

Nominees: Another Round (Denmark); Better Days (Hong Kong); Collective (Romania); The Man Who Sold His Skin (Bulgaria); Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia Herzegovina)

What Will Win: Another Round

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: Onward; Over the Moon; A Shaun the Sheep Movie Farmageddon; Soul; Wolfwalkers.

What Will Win: Soul

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Nominees: Collective; Crip Camp; The Mole Agent; My Octopus Teacher; Time

What Will Win: Crip Camp

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Nominees: Sean Bobbitt (Judas and the Black Messiah); Erik Messerschmitt (Mank); Dariusz Wolski (News of the World); Joshua James Richards (Nomadland); Phedon Papamichael (The Trial of the Chicago Seven)

What Will Win: Nomadland

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Judas and the Black Messiah; Minari; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago Seven

What Will Win: Promising Young Woman

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm; The Father; Nomadland; One Night in Miami; The White Tiger

What Will Win: Nomadland

BEST FILM EDITING

Nominees: The Father; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; Sound of Metal; The Trial of the Chicago Seven

What Will Win: The Father

BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE

Nominees: Terence Blanchard (Da 5 Bloods); Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Mank); Emile Mosseri (Minari); James Newton Howard (News of the World); Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste (Soul)

What Will Win: Soul

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Nominees: Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah); Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago Seven); Húsavík (Eurovision Song Contest); Io Si - Seen (The Life Ahead); Speak Now (One Night in Miami)

What Will Win: Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago Seven)

BEST SOUND

Nominees: Greyhound; Mank; News of the World; Soul; Sound of Metal

What Will Win: Sound of Metal

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Nominees: The Father; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mank; News of the World; Tenet

What Will Win: Mank

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Nominees: Love and Monsters; The Midnight Sky; Mulan; The One and Only Ivan; Tenet

What Will Win: Tenet

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Nominees: Emma; Mank; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mulan; Pinnochio

What Will Win: Emma 

BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING

Nominees: Emma; Hillbilly Elegy; Ma Rainey's Black Bottom; Mank; Pinocchio

What Will Win: Emma 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Nominees: Feeling Through; The Letter Room; The Present; Two Distant Strangers; White Eye

What Will Win: Two Distant Strangers

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Nominees: Burrow; Genius Loci; If Anything Happens I Love You; Opera; Yes-People

What Will Win: If Anything Happens I Love You

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Nominees: Colette; A Concerto Is A Conversation; Do Not Split; Hunger Ward; A Love Song for Latasha

What Will Win: Colette







Comments

Popular posts from this blog

A FAMILY DIVIDED (KIN, SEASON TWO)

© RTE & AMC+ Recently  in a review of 'The Dry' for the Slugger O'Toole website,  I wrote about it being a golden age for Irish TV drama. And it is. Last year saw Sharon Horgan's Irish Film and Television Award winning black comedy ' Bad Sisters ' delight audiences on Apple TV+. Fran Harris ' The Dry ' has made a bit of a splash on Britbox, RTE and ITVx. ©  RTE & AMC+ North of the border, Channel 4's ' Derry Girls ' and BBC Northern Ireland's 'Three Families' and ' Blue Lights ' have really impressed audiences. However over the past eight weeks, one show has muscled its way back to the front of the pack. 'Kin' is a gangland drama made by RTE and AMC. The first series hit our screens in September 2021 and made an immediate impression with its high production values and gripping storyline. © RTE & AMC+ The tale of a south Dublin crime family, the Kinsellas sucked into a feud with a more powerful gang hea

TWO SOULS COLLIDE (BALLYWALTER)

© Breakout Pictures & Elysian 'Ballywalter' isn't about Ballywalter. The Northern Irish coastal village simply provides a backdrop for director Prasanna Puranawajah and screenwriter Stacey Gregg's delicate tale of damaged souls coming into each other's orbit and helping each other cope. If anything, Belfast features more than Ballywalter in Puranawajah's movie but we know  that title was already taken . Seana Kerslake plays Eileen, a twentysomething university dropout who has gone off the rails and is back living with her mum, Abigail McGibbon's Jen. Taking on the job of a taxi driver, she has to endure the opinions of customers who don't think it's a job for a woman. © Breakout Pictures & Elysian Eileen doubles as a barista and can be pretty spiky with the customers in both jobs. Disillusioned and dejected, she hides behind drink as she struggles to come to terms with the death of her father, the sudden ending of a relationship with a cheati

FATHER TIME (FRASIER - REBOOT, SEASON ONE)

© Paramount+ & CBS Studios It's been one of the most eagerly anticipated shows of 2023. It's also been one of the year's most feared shows. 'Frasier' - The Reboot was always going to have huge expectations to live up to. For 11 seasons, the original show was a massive ratings draw on NBC in the US and on other TV stations around the world. © Paramount+ & CBS Studios Adored by critics as much as it was by audiences, the 'Cheers' spin-off built up a huge fanbase with a combination of smart writing and brilliant comedy acting. It netted an impressive haul of 37 Primetime Emmy awards. Even after the final episode aired in May 2004, the Seattle-based sitcom has remained a constant presence on our TV screens, with Channel 4 in the UK airing it every morning. So when it was announced in 2021 that Kelsey Grammer was reviving the sitcom, there was considerable joy in some quarters and trepidation in others. © Paramount+ & CBS Studios Many wondered how wou